__来源:华尔街见闻|编辑:2011-11-28| 郑重声明:本则消息来自网络未经严格核实,也不代表智投观点。 穆迪说,欧元区主权债务和银行危机恶化威胁到所有欧元区国家的信用评级。 _
穆迪的中心情景依然是,欧元区不会有进一步的大规模违约,但即便这种“积极的”情景在过渡时期依然会带来负面评级影响。 穆迪认为,只有在出现一系列震荡,更多国家无法从市场融资之后,才会有政治意愿去执行有效的解决方案。这很可能导致一些国家的评级被移至投机级别。 穆迪说,过去几周,出现更负面的情景的可能性上升了。比如意大利和希腊政局不确定,希腊最终减记的不确定。 因此,穆迪表示: 1、不能再忽视欧元区多个国家违约的可能性。 2、一系列违约将大大提高一个或更多成员不仅是违约,同时还离开欧元区的可能性。 下面是穆迪的英文报告: Announcement: Moody's: Rising Severity of Euro Area Sovereign Crisis Threatens EU Sovereign Ratings Global Credit Research - 28 Nov 2011 London, 28 November 2011 -- The continued rapid escalation of the euro area sovereign and banking credit crisis is threatening the credit standing of all European sovereigns, cautions Moody's Investors Service in a new Special Comment. In the absence of policy measures that stabilise market conditions over the short term, or those conditions stabilising for any other reason, credit risk will continue to rise. Moody's new report notes that, amid the increasing pressure on euro area authorities to act quickly to restore credit market confidence, the constraints they face are also rising. While the euro area as a whole possesses tremendous economic and financial strength, institutional weaknesses continue to hinder the resolution of the crisis and weigh on ratings. In terms of the policy framework, the euro area is approaching a junction, leading either to closer integration or greater fragmentation. While Moody's central scenario remains that the euro area will be preserved without further widespread defaults, even this 'positive' scenario carries very negative rating implications in the interim period. The rating agency notes that the political impetus to implement an effective resolution plan may only emerge after a series of shocks, which may lead to more countries losing access to market funding for a sustained period and requiring a support programme. This would very likely cause those countries' ratings to be moved into speculative grade in view of the solvency tests that would likely be required and the burden-sharing that might be imposed if (as is likely) support were to be needed for a sustained period. However, over the past few weeks, the likelihood of even more negative scenarios has risen. This reflects, among other factors, the political uncertainties in Greece and Italy, uncertainty around the final haircut imposed on holders of Greek debt, the emphasis in the recent Euro Summit statement on the conditional nature of the existing support programmes and the further worsening of the economic outlook across the euro area. Alternative outcomes fall into two broad categories: those involving one or more defaults by euro area countries (in addition to Greece's PSI programme); and those additionally involving exits from the euro area. • The probability of multiple defaults (in addition to Greece's private sector involvement programme) by euro area countries is no longer negligible. In Moody's view, the longer the liquidity crisis continues, the more rapidly the probability of defaults will continue to rise. • A series of defaults would also significantly increase the likelihood of one or more members not simply defaulting, but also leaving the euro area. Moody's believes that any multiple-exit scenario -- in other words, a fragmentation of the euro -- would have negative repercussions for the credit standing of all euro area and EU sovereigns. Moody's notes that the situation is fluid and fast-moving. Policymakers are likely to respond to the escalating risks with new measures, the credit implications of which will require careful consideration. In the meantime, new shocks to financing conditions -- whether the announcement of new programmes or simply a further acceleration in the rise of funding cost across the euro area -- are likely to lead to selective rating changes. More broadly, in the absence of major policy initiatives in the near future which stabilise credit market conditions, or those conditions stabilising for any other reason, the point is likely to be reached where the overall architecture of Moody's ratings within the euro area, and possibly elsewhere within the EU, will need to be revisited. Moody's expects to complete such a repositioning during the first quarter of 2012. Moody's report, entitled "Rising Severity of Euro Area Sovereign Crisis Threatens Credit Standing of All EU Sovereigns", is available on www.moodys.com
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
智投博客
专注于传统投资以外的外汇,商品期货和期权市场,宏观全球视野,洞悉市场变化,制定投资组合策略,管理风险资产。Disclaimer: This BLOG is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy ANY product mentioned herein. Archives
February 2017
Categories
|